tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post6830648230027544545..comments2024-02-10T10:35:20.557+00:00Comments on My contrarian adventure: Analysis of PharmstandardFredrik von Oberhausenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10924238593055161520noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post-30071403239469757662014-04-28T08:17:44.685+01:002014-04-28T08:17:44.685+01:00I got a very important reply on Google+ that I jus...I got a very important reply on Google+ that I just must repost to all of you!<br /><br />"Aleksandr Kairov<br /><br />Pharmstandard is one of the best companies on Russian market to invest in. At least it was in Q3-Q4 2013, due to a low price per share :)<br /><br />However there are some important points missed in your summary table/ analysis:<br />- Pharmstandard made a carve out of its OTC business in Q4 2013 "OTCPHARM" (revenues of c.14B RUR in 2013FY) which should be listed on MICEX in May 2014. Actual price per share reflects Pharmstandard without OTC business.<br />- 2013 FY IFRS statement reports Pharmstandard + OTCPHARM numbers<br />- Shareholders of Pharmstandard have received 4 shares of OTCPHARM per every share of Pharmstandard<br />- Price per share of OTCPHARM should be around 400 RUR once listed <br /><br />Considering the above points, I would say that actual price per share of Pharmstandard (perimeter before carve out) is around 2700 RUR. Not bad considering that it was 1400 RUR in Q2-Q3 2013. <br /><br />Based on my own financial model and analysis, I think if market conditions will be good we might see price per share of 2400 RUR and of 600 RUR per Pharmstandard and OTCPHARM respectively in 2014-2015. That means 2400+600*4= 4800 RUR per share of Pharmstandard before carve out perimeter. <br /><br />Best,<br />Aleksandr Kairov"<br /><br />Thank you Aleksandr for this very important information!Fredrik von Oberhausenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10924238593055161520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post-47658545349552457422014-04-24T20:39:44.434+01:002014-04-24T20:39:44.434+01:00Woops... my fat finger seem to have pushed the pub...Woops... my fat finger seem to have pushed the publishing button too early on this article...<br /><br />No there is no guarantee that they will pay dividend. I just hoped that they will one day do so just like Apple started to do after many years without paying a dime.<br /><br />To me it seems as if several of the banks in Europe have managed to do exactly the same thing with their books and reporting so no matter what the regulation says and how little or how largely corrupt a country is there will never be a guarantee on such matters and it is simply part of the risk that you take when stepping in as a shareholder into any company that you do not run yourself. <br />It is enough that a new CEO comes to one of your companies that you have shares in and the company culture can over night be changed from honest and straight forward to corruption being the standard of business.<br /><br />I am sure that you can buy all the stocks also in Sweden. The problem will be more how much you have to pay for doing so. <br />All the companies that I own that are not registered in Germany... So Intel, Cez, ABF, BP, Enel and Kernel I have still managed to buy on the German stock exchange so maybe you can also try to do that from Sweden but I do not know if that will work. Sorry that I can not give you a better reply.<br />Fredrik von Oberhausenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10924238593055161520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post-3950792469258844752014-04-24T19:03:54.436+01:002014-04-24T19:03:54.436+01:00Thnx for the post. A question:
1) How can one be ...Thnx for the post. A question:<br /><br />1) How can one be sure that this Russian company will ever pay dividents? There are reports of heavy corruption in Russia, and the companys reported values can stay on paper for years until company is butchered.<br /><br />Ps. Kan man handla aktier som du granskar, så som tyska österrikiska ryska tjeckiska spanska etc, från Sverige?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com