tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post1312214152816909719..comments2024-02-10T10:35:20.557+00:00Comments on My contrarian adventure: Analysis of BMW 2014Fredrik von Oberhausenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10924238593055161520noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post-27675170999406318062014-05-22T10:19:43.092+01:002014-05-22T10:19:43.092+01:00Hi Chris,
you can always link things by using cla...Hi Chris,<br /><br />you can always link things by using classical HTML coding in these comment fields.<br /><br />< a href="url">Link text< /a> <br /><br />remove the space between the < and the a and the < and the /a> and it will work.<br /><br />Thanks for your comment Chris! <br /><br />Yes, BMW is a healthy company that is doing very well and I hope one day to be a shareholder. I have to admit that I love the look of the BMW.Fredrik von Oberhausenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10924238593055161520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2949218657849719987.post-31178062133315243922014-05-22T08:59:07.062+01:002014-05-22T08:59:07.062+01:00Wise to be a little cautious of cyclical companies...Wise to be a little cautious of cyclical companies I would agree. Shame I cannot attach a (debadged) note I wrote a couple of weeks ago on the stock. The key conclusion was:<br /><br />'Clearly there is no crisis here and (as noted in the original March note) the stewardship of the Quandt family combined with the growth of premiumisation / emerging market demand gives plenty of scope. Looking forward there are a number of new launches that will kick in over the rest of the year (Mini, 2 Series, 4 Series) which will assist sales. Additionally a relatively conservative outlook (‘substantial’ profits growth but cautious single digit margin guidance vs 11.5% in Q114) is still apparent. <br />Back in March the conclusion on the shares was that ‘Trading at just over x8 EV/ebit (a x1 point premium to its great peer/rival Daimler) with a 5% free cash flow yield (from which a 3% dividend is paid) and a relatively modest Euro12bn of debt (less than a quarter of market cap), the company is undoubtedly a safe counter. It does not feel that cheap though – that comes more in the sub Euro75 zone’. <br />With the new models driving (no pun intended) medium-term earnings scope the ‘consider buying more price’ is raised to Euro80 (prospective sub x7.5 EV/ebit multiple) but at prevailing the share is still in take profits mode'.<br /><br />So I am waiting for that Euro80 level! <br />Chris Baileyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14641125703755041957noreply@blogger.com