Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Analysed requests from 2014

2014, requests, analysis

This time we take a closer look at the requests that arrived in 2014 on the Analytical Requests page. The principle of how I looked at it was exactly the same as in the previous article Analysed requests from 2013 so there is no reason to go over that again.

From this year Graham has four green ones and only one red meaning that he had an 80% pick accuracy for the "extra ordinary" stocks in either direction. I on the other hand had only two green ones and one red so 67% accuracy but on the other hand I would not have picked a single company to invest in. That is always bad news.

If Graham would have invested 1000 € into each holding then he would today have been +54.8%, I would of course have been +0% due to zero picks and if one would have bought all of them then one would have been +22.9% on the investments with an around two years holding time.

It is noteworthy that Graham picked one of the rockets, Turbon, but neither of us picked the BIG rocket which was Gravity. When I analysed Gravity I had never hear about them or even seen them around... today one see, especially on blogs, advertisement that are connected to Gravity.

Conclusion: The Graham formula was this time very good in its selection. All the really bad ones were avoided and one of the seriously good ones were chosen. That is indeed good. I was more hesitant in my selection based on the analysis but I own today one of the companies on the list... one of the, share price wise, bad performers namely IBM. If one would have bought all of them one would have received an acceptable return by the look of it. Once again one should not listen to me and this time it would have been more than ok to have listened to Graham.

No comments: