Wednesday 2 September 2015

Summary of August 2015

Summary, August, 2015

The weather was excellent during the two weeks that I spent in Sweden! I managed to see almost all family members as well as friends. I also managed to build the shed as I specifically wrote about and I managed to take a leap forward concerning the removal of the basement smell that we have in the summer house since years and years. So the vacation was very successful!

I have now also managed to receive almost all the books needed for my studies. One of the courses which apparently concerns how to write a bachelor thesis and how to defend it... well... I hope that my experience in doing that a couple of times already should be enough because otherwise I have to buy a lot of books. I find it very disturbing that they have a course concerning it. Only reason I see is that they wanted to decrease the failure rates which is ok but that it is accounted for with University credits that I do not find correct.

An additional complication has appeared because by the look of it I will end up in trouble when it comes to writing the exams. Before I downloaded it, wrote it, scanned it in and sent it back up... these courses it seems as if I have to be present and that does not please me because it was advertised as being zero meetings. So in worst case scenario I will have to fly back to take the exams which will be an additional cost that I do not like.

I am now also the happy owner of a new passport, national ID-card and a new drivers licence! It all worked out in the end so for the next five years I am legally Swedish and with my German drivers licence I can drive around for 15 years which is five more than what one gets in Sweden so that is also good. That it took six months to get the darn thing that is a separate subject.

The world seems to have slowed down. Each time when trouble comes knocking I directly see that with the amount, or better put lack, of sales in my company. It is indeed fascinating to observe how quickly companies decide to close their purse. Usually everyone then comes running in the end of the year because they have to spend their yearly budget or risk getting it decreased. It is a sick system that not only governments work according but also companies. They reach their targets without using the entire budget then give them a bonus and not a punishment by decreasing their future budget. We shall see if that will happen this year but I for one hope the companies comes running during autumn.

For the previous report please visit summary of July 2015.

Invested, current, portfolio, stocks, August, 2015

The total invested value amounts to 68,297 € including realised losses. The changes came this month due to an investment in the American off-price chain TJX.

Investments, current, August, 2015

August was a weather wise excellent month but share price wise it was less of a "ponyhofen". The value of the stock portfolio dropped to 64,405 € even if around 2,000 fresh € were pushed into it. This then also means that we went from an unrealised profit to an unrealised loss in the size of -3,982 €.

Me, versus, DAX, August, 2015

The only "comfort" is that DAX went down to 9,988 points which means that DAX decreased by -11.1%. For my own portfolio it was almost equally dramatic and it decreased by -10.9% so pretty much flat with DAX and we can call this month even since both of us performed equally poorly.

Conclusion: The over -10% drop is here and there are plenty of companies looking, cheaper is probably the good word to use. The future will tell if the decrease will continue any further. I was on my way to write that general drops such as this one does not influence me but that is not completely true. I do not sell shares, I do not panic and if anything I get annoyed for not having more cash but there are still thoughts of a different nature and a reflection will soon arrive regarding contrarian investing.


Falk said...

Hi Fredrik,

first of all congratulations for your swedish worker skills. I could also use a helping hand here in Cologne :)

I had a quick look at your rules for investing and divesting. The big showdown Dax vs. Fredrik will be end of 2016 I suppose. Shouldn't you stop putting more money in your portfolio right know and save instead?

I would do this, so that I wouldn't have to sell 50 percent of my portfolio at a certain point next year, if I lose. Or did you change your opinion regarding your benchmark and switching to an index fund?

As an passionate value investor I of course wish you very luck to beat the damn index and show that value investing works, even with german banks und utilities :)


Fredrik von Oberhausen said...

Hi Falk!

Thank you! Well... During Karneval I will be happy to come and help! ;)

Good that you keep track of me!

I started investing in Spring 2012 so indeed around the end of 2016 -> spring of 2017 will be the crucial moment for me. I do not like to go back on my word but if it is financial insanity then I will never again do something due to a written rule. As an example one such stupid rule created a much larger loss in Asian Bamboo than I should ever have allowed it to become.

A second reason for why the rule is not so good is because I have kept buying into distressed companies. Some of them I have not even held for one year and to imagine that they will manage to make a turnaround within the next 1 to 1.5 years would be ponyhofen by me. That they will manage to do it within 5 years is more reasonable. As an example I would have expected the darn German banks to have turned by now!

Today I already hold around 7% of my portfolio in ETFs and my thoughts now are more towards the direction that I would make future investments from 2017 and onwards into ETFs if my portfolio has not started to improve by then.

So to start saving to be able to follow the rules I will not do and instead I will do what will make financial most sense when the moment arrive. The principle of the rule is however sane. If you cannot beat index then become the index minus an as low fee as possible.

Thanks for your question Falk!