Sunday, December 27, 2015

The stock portfolio development 2015

Portfolio, Development, 2015

As all of you know my target in the end is to reach 750 k€ invested on the stock market that will be my retirement fund. This means that I should not forget to every now and then look at the development for reaching this target.

For the previous please visit the stock portfolio development 2014.

As can be seen in the graph above my plan is working well. In my first year (2012) of investment I ended up with a stock portfolio in the value of 17,659 € which was 4,744 € more then my plan required. In the second year (2013) my stock portfolio grew with 73 % and ended up with a value of 30,623 € which was 4,723 € above my target meaning that I managed to stay ahead of my plan but I did not manage to increase this advantage. In the third year (2014) my stock portfolio grew with 57% and I ended up with a value of 48,208 € which is then 8,333 € ahead of my investment plan which means that I managed to double my advantage during 2014. 

Now in the fourth year (2015) my portfolio grew by 53% and I am up at a value of 73,579 €. My plan was to have a stock portfolio of 54,915 € in the end of 2015 which means that I am now 18,664 € ahead of my plan.

The only reason for why I am ahead is still only because of that I have managed to push in much more money each month than what I calculated from the beginning. The strategy was to invest 1,000 € per month which would have given 12,000 € fresh euros during 2015 but instead I managed to push in around 22,000 € so 10,000 € more than according to plan. This can also be seen in the graph below. That the invested versus the current value of the portfolio are very strictly following each other so I am definitely not a good stock picker.

Invested, Current, 2015

Conclusion: Another year I have managed to save myself by pushing in more money into the portfolio each month. Due to this I am now one entire year ahead of my schedule but I still hope that the stock value increase will start to kick in so that I will get an even bigger push upwards.


lorenzo nencioni said...

First of all congratulations for your results.
Somtimes I follow your blog where I can find usefull hints for my investments.
I appreciate your results and your ability to watch so far ahead in your purpose.
I would like just to give you an advice regarding your bold path: pay attention to the "black swans" that sometimes show up in our path.
Have you ever read the books "Fooled by ramdoness" ad "The black swan" written by Nassim Taleb ?
If not, please read them. Among others he says:
1)it is not over until it 's over 2) sometimes our plans do not fit with unforeseeable events. Than pay attention.
Have a fully satisfying 2016 ad sorry for my poor english,


Anonymous said...

Thank you Lorenzo Nencioni!

I have read fooled by randomness but not yet the black swan. I will add it to my reading list!

I wish you also all the best with your stocks in 2016!

Greetings from a snowy Stöten.

-Fredrik von Oberhausen

lorenzo nencioni said...

Let's see this brand new 2016 how and where it will go....

In the meanwhile I leave you thislink to a very interesting conference held at Googletalk by the famous value investor Howard Marks: here he talks also about the importance of randomness in the financial investments and about N. Taleb among the others.