My idea here is that you can write a little post concerning a company that you would like me to make my rough contrarian analysis of and I will then later on publish it as soon as I have made the analysis.
Please also let me know if you want me to update an analysis because it is getting too old or there has been larger changes in the company such as splits, reverse splits, other forms of dilutions etc.
And for me any company goes so it does not matter which country or if it is a slow grower, a fast grower or high dividend paying company. All needed is that sufficient information is available online in a language that I understand so: English, German, French, Swedish, Danish, Norwegian or Dutch.
And you can of course also write comments in any of the above mentioned languages. My answers will always be in English with a brief reference to what the question/analysis concerned I hope you have understanding for this.
I´m looking forward to digging in to the companies that you find of interest!
Warning: Please be careful with what you ask me to analyse because if the company does not fulfil my requirements then I am not very kind in my analysis of it.
Please also let me know if you want me to update an analysis because it is getting too old or there has been larger changes in the company such as splits, reverse splits, other forms of dilutions etc.
And for me any company goes so it does not matter which country or if it is a slow grower, a fast grower or high dividend paying company. All needed is that sufficient information is available online in a language that I understand so: English, German, French, Swedish, Danish, Norwegian or Dutch.
And you can of course also write comments in any of the above mentioned languages. My answers will always be in English with a brief reference to what the question/analysis concerned I hope you have understanding for this.
I´m looking forward to digging in to the companies that you find of interest!
Warning: Please be careful with what you ask me to analyse because if the company does not fulfil my requirements then I am not very kind in my analysis of it.
91 comments:
Hi! More analysis of scandinavian stocks. E.g. Fortum ,Beijer Alma, Orkla, Aker, Danske Bank, Handelsbanken, Sampo.
Thanks for your suggestion! I have three banks in the pipeline so there I will directly add your bank suggestions and the others will come over time. Thanks!
Thank you Fredrik for your interesting blog. What about some contrarian stocks like ArcelorMittal S.A. (P/B 0.37) or its spinoff Aperam (P/B 0.31)?
Hi Falk! Thanks for your suggestions! ArcelorMittal has since a long time been on my follow list but I have yet to make the analysis of it. Your request will now push that forward in the line. I will also take a look at Aperam. It should be possible for me to have it done by the end of next week.
Thank you for an interesting blog. I would like you to take a look at Skanska, NCC, and some big american stocks such as Wal-mart.
Have a great day.
Skanska and NCC has been added. It should be possible to push them out in the end of next week.
If you look at the labels list then some of the american giants have already been analysed. Such as Wal-mart, Yum brands, McDonalds & Starbucks. Besides from them some technology stocks have also been analysed. So please check out the labels list. If there are some other of the american giants that you want to see then please get back to me again with specifications.
Thank you Fredrik for your analysis so far. K+S (DE000KSAG888) is getting cheaper and cheaper. I think I will start buying next week. What do you think?
I will try to analyse it tomorrow. But they look contrarian with -67% in the stock price in the last five years. But generally... cheap DAX companies are always a good buy!
Thanks for an interesting blog. Could you please make your contrarian analysis on the sport shoes companies? Asics, puma, nike, adidas?
I still have some more investment companies in the pipeline but after that I will take a look at the sportshoes. Most likely I will be able to do that next week.
Thanks for your suggestion!
Can you please look att guideline geo in sweden?
On the Swedish homepage I saw that there was sufficient data to be able to make a contrarian analysis of it so Yes I will do that. My guess is that I will manage to have it done before the end of next week.
Thanks for your suggestion.
Thank you Fredrik for your analysis so far. What do you think about Südzucker (DE0007297004)? I still hope that I can buy a big position for less then 20€ a share, but mr. market is demanding a bit more. Should I pay the premium? What do you think?
Hi Falk,
I will try to make an analysis of Südzucker before the end of this week (might become weekend). Personally I am already exposed to sugar via Associated British Foods and previously I was exposed also with Kernel Holding but they sold off their sugar part last spring/summer.
They sold it off due to that they did not manage to enter the European market due to high tolls on sugar which gives the European sugar companies "artificially" high revenues at the moment.
The last decision in EU was to keep the tolls for now but I have no clue for how long... and there I see part of the danger with the sugar companies.
Hi
Great blog.
Analysis of Henkel would be much appreciated!
BR JG
Hi there,
Thank you! Henkel will be analysed next week as part of the DAX companies so I hope that is soon enough...
Hi Fredrik,
I bought some shares of Westag + Getalit AG Vz (DE0007775231) last week. Perhaps you will have a look at it, just to make sure, that I didn't buy any crap :)
Hi Falk,
You will get it in the beginning of next week. I took a quick look at it and it looks solid with increasing revenue after the more dramatic revenue decrease around 2009 like all the other construction companies also had. I have previously analysed NCC and Skanska so we even have something to compare it with.
I am sorry but i have still not managed to go through your portfolio that you posted before. Work has been a bit chaotic lately but i will try to look at that also next week.
Hi Fredrik,
what du you think about Accell Group (NL0009767532)? It looks like a solid company at a currently fair price. I dont like the increased debt in the last years but the revenue growth and the divident yield looks nice. What du you think?
Regards,
Falk
Hi Falk,
There seem to be enough information for me to make the analysis so i will try to do it this week.
I see three issues: significantly increased debt and they borrowed total of over 300 million to refinance an american brand they bought (i am uncertain entire loan is booked yet). Secondly why is the refinance needed for something they had already bought some time ago... meaning why was that debt not already in the books? thirdly their inventory jumped a lot! If they bought that brand this year then that could explain all three items.. I will see what I find.
Dear Frederik
I think that Picanol Group (Belgian company) might be a stock that scores high on your criteria. (low valuation, high profits,...)
bad points are
- major competitors are Japanese (see Euro vs Yen-evolution)
- bought recently major stake in Tessenderlo Group (=turn around story)
- not a lot of free float.
Any thoughts?
thanks!
Garry
Hi Garry,
Thanks for the suggestion! I found enough data on it so I will try to run it through my contrarian analysis some time during next week! I hope that will be fast enough.
Happy new year, Fredrik
I am currently looking at Turbon AG (DE0007504508), mainly because of the nice dividend yield and possible growth at a reasonable price. It would be interesting to get your opinion on this company.
Regards
Falk
Happy New Year Falk!
I will try to take a look at it as soon as possible. From the quick look it does indeed look interesting even though it is small.
Thank you Fredrik for your interessing analysis so far.
What do you think about IBM (US4592001014)? It isn't the typically contrarian investment, but regarding their expected growth it seems relatively cheap today.
It would be interesting to see what you and your graham style analysis formula say about IBM, especially regarding high P/B ratio but also high ROE and nice growth.
Regards,
Falk
Hi Falk,
I have previously analysed IBM as part of the American giants that I then decided to take a closer look at and that analysis can be found here.
Since they have arrived with a release concerning the figures for 2013 I might as well make a new analysis of IBM and I will try to make that during this week.
Hi Fredrik,
thank you for your quick response. I overlooked that you already analysed IBM. For your update you should perhaps consider the earnings per share growth rate, because between 2006 and 2014 IBM bought back about 35 percent auf their shares.
Regards,
Falk
Hmmm... I do not agree with looking at the EPS growth rate of IBM due to two reasons.
1. I do not want to start to treat companies differently based on what they do or which business they are in etc. I want to compare all of them with the same analysis and draw conclusions based on that same strict analysis. I know that this will mean missed chances etc. for me but at least I also think that I will not fool myself in the long run which I think it is easy to do if one makes special calculations and exceptions for each industry.
2. That they are buying back shares means a couple of things. They have maxed out their revenue, have no future plans for what to do next and have no better way to spend their profit besides from either giving dividend or buying back shares and buying back shares is then tax-wise usually better.
If I would have owned the shares back in 2006 everything would be fine today and I would have been a happy shareholder with nice dividends and a %-age wise larger share of the company but stepping in today means a much bigger risk.
Will they continue to only buy back shares or are they planning to do something which then also can mean that they can fail seriously with their attempt.
If I would have known that they would have kept up their profit with a trimmed organization and decreased costs for the next couple of years with bought back shares I would have no problem with stepping in but we even see them selling off parts that they can not manage to get a larger profit from as well as that they are having decreased revenue.
So... I am not too pleased with IBM but then again. Warren Buffett is happy with them so who am I to say something else?
Hey Fredrik!
I've been looking into Gravity Co., LTD. (US38911N1072), and have found the valuation very tempting. It would be intereseting to hear your take on the company.
best regards
Hi Erik,
My take on that company will not turn out very favourable at all. They ran a loss in the final annual report 2012 and by the look of things also 2013 will be a loss. Their latest game Ragnarok 2 seem to have been a big failure with closed down server in their home country Korea and they lost the contract they had with the distributer in China probably due to the poor performance of the new game.
So I see no reason for anyone to step into Gravity as a shareholder but I will publish the analysis at some point. One could imagine it to be a turnaround but then one should ideally see it turning before stepping in. Gravity seems to be far from that with troubles even heaping up at least according to their final filing in SEC.
Guten Morgen, bitten wir Sie analysieren hoftex http://www.hoftexgroup.com/.
Vielen Dank und sorry für die Übersetzung. Ich bin Spanisch
Ah, spanish I unfortunately do not speak yet. I managed to find enough information on the company so I will try to get the analysis finished this week.
Hi Fredrik,
Been following your blog from Australia and grateful of your detailed analysis of European companies. The companies I'm interested in are Roche Holdings and Novartis.
Thanks,
Mark
Hi Mark,
Thanks for reading MCA and giving suggestions for companies to analyse!
This week I will finish the boring job of doing all the DAX companies and after that I will go back to hunting for more interesting stocks again.
According to my calculations it should be possible for me to publish the analysis of Novartis and Roche during next week.
I have a brother in Australia that used to work in the iron mining industry but unfortunately got laid off during the last drop in iron ore price. Lately it has dropped to the same levels and is again below 100 USD per ton.
Sometimes I wonder if one should be worried that Australia is so financially connected to China or just take it for what it is...
... that Australia is surfing on the giant wave of China that is pushing up the Australian economy so why not ride it until it ends?
Nothing says that the beach will be filled with rocks so a smooth landing can always be made anyway.
Hi Fredrik,
Thanks, look forward to seeing the analysis. You are right Australia is very connected financially with China and I believe the iron ore price has dropped 20% in the last 2 months.
Thanks,
Mark
Thanks for a great blog that inspires!
I would like you to take a look at Banco Bilbao ADR or regular and Banco Santander.
Hi Hampus,
Thanks for your kind comment! I hope readers will learn from my mistakes and especially how i have failed with Asian Bamboo by buying more shares when clearly the fundamentals had changed negatively.
I will add them to my list of requests. Thanks for the suggestions!
Hello.
Can you analyze: Sonoco Products (SON) in USA?
I will be happy to take a look at it! Thanks for the suggestion!
I have a lot in the pipeline currently but in the beginning of next week it should be possible to do it.
Hi Fredrik,
It is Mark again from Australia, Happy New Year. I'm curious about a company called KONE that manufactures elevators, etc. is it possible to do an a analysis on this.
Thanks,
Mark
Hi Mark,
Happy New Year to you too! I will try to make an analysis of it during next week. I know that some Swedish bloggers either own it or have written about it so I guess it will be of interest to look at.
Thanks for the suggestion!
Hello.
Here is a small bank in Finland that i wish you could analyse. The banks name is : Aktia Bank. Aktia.com
Thank you for your suggestion.
I will see what I can find out about the bank.
Hello.
I would be intereted to see what you have t say about a company called Etteplan (www.etteplan.com)
Hi there,
I will take a look at Etteplan as soon as possible. First out will be the analysis of Aktia Bank that is already in the pipeline.
Kvaerner. A hard pressed supplier to the oil industry. Would be interesting to get a glimpse of you view of it.
Thank you for your suggestion John!
I will take a look at it as soon as possible!
Hello
Can you analyza the german Company Linde?
Thanks,
I have previously made two analysis of Linde.
One is analysis of Linde and the other one is analysis of Linde 2014 but I have not looked at them based on the annual report from 2014 so I will take a look at them again.
At the moment I am a bit slow with the analysis but the reasons will most likely be clear in the next monthly update.
Hi Fredrik,
it's Ron from Italy.Thanks for your analysis.I actuallly own Gazprom bought at 4.2E.What's your fair price according to 2014 annual account too?
I think should exit at 6E anyway.
Thank you.
Hi Ron,
I will make a new analysis of Gazprom as soon as possible based on their annual 2014 report. I hope that will help you to make your own decision of the fair price.
It should be possible for me to to do it already this week.
Oh, Ron, it makes no sense that I analyse Gazprom before they release their 2014 annual report so you will have to wait until after the 30th of April for the analysis.
I have over twitter received the question to analyse Unilever and Nestle and will try to do that during next week.
Hello!
Can you analyze Wal-Mart?
I analyzed it myself and I think it is "buyable".
Iam abit concerned with the minimum wage raise all wal-mart eployees recently got.
I think it is good for the eployees, but is it bad for the company?
HEllo!
Can you analyze Wal-Mart?
Thanks
Hi there double Anon,
Of course I can analyse Wal-Mart again. For the previous analysis please visit analysis of Wal-Mart.
When it comes to the employees salary then the change will not be seen in the analysis but rough calculation... they have around 1 million employees with below minimum wage getting around 8.8 USD/hour so if they get paid 10 USD/hour instead then I roughly got it to that the salary costs would be around 2 billion USD extra for Wal-Mart per year which would be around 12% of their current earnings so you can push up the P/E value by around 10-15% to adjust for this change.
I will try to analyse them during next week.
Hi Fredrik,
perhaps you are interested in analysing the companies currently in my portfolio. I know, not very deep value there according to Graham :)
But I have about 25 percent of my net worth in it, so I am confident...
Alliance Resource US01877R1086
Cellcom Israel IL0011015349
Electrica US83367Y2072
Fossil US34988V1061
Mattel US5770811025
Regards
Falk
Hi Falk,
I will be happy to take a look at them!
Especially Mattel since I have been sniffing around that company myself a little but never got around to making an analysis of it.
I can probably start to make the analysis sometime next week. I hope that will be ok and since you already own them.
Falk,
I have problem with information for Cellcom Israel. I did in the end arrive to an investor relations page that were in English but I am not comfortable with the data that were provided.
By the look of it they are currently offering more rights so the amount of shares will jump up significantly in the close future so therefore I have decided not to analyse them at the moment. Maybe you can remind me one day in the future again when things have settled down.
Bonjour,
Pouvez-vous faire l'analyse de Encana Corporation.
Merci
Bien sûr, je ferai l'analyse de Encana Corporation pour vous.
Hi Fredrik,
thank you for analyzing my current portfolio (now without mattel but more ARLP + Fossil). Cellcom Israel is indeed a little tricky. What do you think about Wüstenrot & Württembergische AG (DE0008051004)? I am currently thinking about putting some money in it and it would be nice to have your opinion about this company...
Hi Falk,
I thought you already owned W&W but maybe you were only interested in buying it when you mentioned it a long time ago.
I will of course take a look at it. Most likely it will be possible already next week.
Hi Fredrik,
you are right (nice memory). I owned W&W back in 2013. I bought it in july and sold it in november with a nice profit. After selling, I put it on my watchlist, waiting for a new entry. Now, below 16 euro per share W&W is getting cheap again so I think about establishing a position. BTW, thank you for your analyzing time.
Hello,
would you do an update on Immofinanz, since your last Analysis the stock has dropped from 3,15 to 2,2
Moreover what do you think about Romgaz and Balda ?
Gratis !
Hi Matthias,
I will try to take a look at all three of them as soon as possible.
Hi, maybe you can an Update on Agrana and I would really like to hear your opinion on Ensco.
Tack så mycket!
Would be great to have an update on Agrana and your opinion on Ensco.
Tack så mycket!
Ah, yes, Agrana is a company that I am also highly interested in so I will take a look at that and of course also Ensco but I doubt they will come out good due to their losses in 2014...
The Q2 reports are coming out but I will try to squeeze in these analysis inbetween.
Good Morning Fredrik,
would be greate to hear your opinion on the austrian Company AMS.
Regards Matthias
Hi Matthias,
I will try to take a look at them any time soon. Now during vacation my speed is a bit low though...
I only wanted to say that I have not forgotten you Matthias! I have too many things that must be published at the moment but soon I am sure it will open up again and then I will look at AMS for you.
Hi,
If you find time, could you look into Finnish bank, eQ Plc? This year they paid 20snt dividend and 30snt return of capital, yielding almost 10%. Shareprice has been rising quite rapidly for past years, management (CEO is the largest shareholder) have been buing shares quite heavily, so they seem to trust the firm even with the high shareprice.
br
Wahlroos
Hi Wahlroos,
I will take a look at them. I might even be able to make it during next week if things work out as it should.
Hello!
Can you analyze Garmin? I just purchased an Garmin GPS watch that I like very much :)
Of course I can take a look at them. Hopefully already during next week!
Dear Frederik,
I appreciate so much your blog with your contrarian analysis.
I would like to receive an analysis about a small italian company producing medical laser products called EL.EN.
Thanks,
Lorenzo
Hi Lorenzo,
Of course I will take a look at them for you! I will hopefully manage to do it already this week.
Hello, can you have a look at Verbund and semperit? Thank you!
Hello Fredrik,
don´t know if my earlier post worked. So could you please have a look at Verbund AG and Semperit.
Thanks Matthias
Hi Matthias,
it worked! I just have to give the ok for the publication. If one does not have a system like that there is so much spam being published in comments that it drives me crazy. But it worked and now it is published.
I thought I had looked at Semperit before but I see that I have not so I will of course take a contrarian look at the two companies for you. Hopefully within the week or the week after.
Hello!
Can you please analyze Kroger (KR) on NYSE?
Thanks,
Hi there!
I should be able to take a look at them during next week.
Hi Fredrik,
I have been appreciating your short but wise analysis so far.
Could you analyze Euronext and Usu Software ?
The first one was suggested by a newsletter I receive montly by Gurfocus (gurufocus.com) recently.
Many thanks,
Lorenzo
Hello!
An analysis of Maersk would be very interesting! I think they look good, but maybe there is a catch (except market perception, but for a contrarian...)?
I will look at all of the suggestions that you guys have given.
Hello,
Can you please analyze Pfizer Inc?
Regards,
Thanks for the analysis of MAERSK. Another one that I would like to see your analysis of is Apple Inc. I was surprised when I today looked at its business ratios, e.g. P/E 10.0. I thought it would be more like Tesla kind of numbers. Did I miss something?
And it is clearly a company in good shape, it's not another Eniro.
I will take a look at Apple john-magic. The investing world is getting more and more scared of the earnings and its dependence on one product line the iPhone.
Yes! These guys make money, just like it should be and Eniro... well... they actually also make money but their debt to intangibles are simply so far out of even being close to reasonable. Yeah... it is not that long ago and back then I never even looked at tangible and intangible assets. Stupid.
Hello,
would be interesting to hear your opinion on Mondi Plc and AT&S.
Regards Matthias
Hi, there what do you think of the EU initiative to reduce plastic garbage. And possible subsitutes like paper&pulp producer or companies like Lenzing AG
In general we humans should decrease our environmental impact on earth. When it comes to plastics then they are fine as long as they are easy to recycle or they are easy to degrade.
Because it comes from wood originally does not equalise it being environmentally friendly. Impregnated wood is, as an example, not easy to degrade while plastics made from fossil fuel can be made harmless and biodegradable. Large grey zone but whatever it is... if it is not degradable in a reasonable amount of time then the applications must be highly specific and it should be easy to regain and recycle the material.
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