Sunday 31 August 2014

Slow day today...

Ocea, Sea, Rocky, shore, coastline

Today I am having a bit of a slow day and therefore the only thing I have the energy to do is to make the update of the analysis of Aksa based on the discussions that I had with Vega in the comments below on that analysis.

My problem was that they reported the quantity of shares as being 18,500 million but the capital value of the shares were 185 million lira and by the look of things that is then also the quantity of shares. I find that strange but still it appears to be like that. The quantity of shares is always crucial in each analysis and what goes for anything in this world... bad data in = even worse data out, unless you are extremely lucky but few are on a consistent enough basis.

Now I will start working on the inside trading so that I can publish that tomorrow and then I must make a kladdkaka and later on this afternoon a lasagne. In the last couple of weeks I have also started to read normal books (= non finance books) again and I hope to enjoy this afternoon with reading a bit more especially since the skies above Berlin are filled with rain heavy clouds.

Saturday 30 August 2014

Analysis of Diageo

Diageo, a British alcohol producer

Company: Diageo

ISIN GB0002374006 | WKN 851247

Business: A British producer of alcohol containing liquids. The three pillars are: Spirits (they have several of the premium brands: Johnnie Walker, J&B, Tanqueray, Gordon, Captain Morgan, Smirnoff etc.), Beer (Guiness, Kilkenny, Tusker etc.) and Wine (Dom Perignon, Moet etc.). For the full list of their brands please go here.

Active: They are active world wide and are currently selling their products in over 180 countries.

P/E: 23.1

Friday 29 August 2014

Yesterdays sadness todays joy?

Delicious mushrooms fried in butter

Yesterday I became sad when I started to think over my life that I am living at the moment. Not because I find it so boring but because I really have no clue what else I can do to save more money.

Sure, one could cut even more on food and stop eating fresh vegetables and fresh fruit but that on the other hand will most likely shorten my lifespan which means less compounding which means that it is of no interest for me to reach my goals.

Image if I would have been one of the people buying coffee in Starbucks each morning. That would be around 4 € x 5 days x 4 weeks = 80 € per month. That would be the equivalent of a 5% salary raise if I could have stopped doing that. Alas, I cannot.

Thursday 28 August 2014

Analysis of Aksa

Aksa, a Turkish acrylic fibres producer

Company: Aksa Akrilik Kimya Sanayii AS


Business: A Turkish producer of acrylic fibres. They are dividend into three units: Textile Fibres (micro fibres, high shrinkage fibres, super bright fibres etc.), Technical Fibres (outdoor fibres, homopolymer acrylic fibres and flock tow) and finally Carbon Fibre (becoming a bigger and bigger market it is a joint venture with Dow).

Active: In 50 countries on four continents having 16% of the overall market share of acrylic fibres.

P/E: 9.4

Comment: Please see discussion below. My initial post had 18500 million shares and it is now changed to 185 million shares with significant change in the table.

Wednesday 27 August 2014

Historical idiocy of mankind

Aboriginal, Painting, Australia

Sorry, but this reflection has nothing to do with stocks or tulips in Amsterdam for that matter (if you do not know about it then please read about Tulip Mania, Wikipedia) but instead has to do with things that simply annoy me when I am watching documentary on TV concerning the past or the present for that matter but then the documentaries are from developing countries.

The reason for why I am annoyed is because civilizations and developing countries are often being down talked and felt pity for and even worse is when people express amazement when something was accomplished. Why I wonder?

Tuesday 26 August 2014

Analysis of Olympic Entertainment

Olympic Entertainment Group, an Estonian casino company

Company: Olympic Entertainment Group

ISIN EE3100084021 | WKN A0LB21

Business: An Estonian gaming and casino company. They are currently engaged in hotel services, catering, bar services and the running of casinos.

Active: They are active in seven countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Belarus and Italy.

P/E: 11.6

Monday 25 August 2014

My current stocks on Google Docs

Stock portfolio, current, contrarian, value ivnesting, Google Docs, August 2014
snapshot of the list as it can be seen in Google Docs.

I keep ticking off the list and this time I have managed to accomplish the live update with My Current Stocks which you will see when you click on the link. There will of course also be a permanent link that can be found on the Stock Portfolio page.

I now also added more stricter, to some of them, sales prices or reasons in comparison to what I have previously given. The starting point goes back to my End of year overview of my contrarian stock 2013 where I put in some points for when I considered it to be time to sell the different companies in my portfolio.

In the list there has also been an update on the share prices since it became easier to make with the stricter sales reason and not only based on the companies growth rate for the last five years according to Grahams formula. I will bring those prices into the excel sheet that I use for making my monthly update of my portfolios development, please do not be alarmed over the currencies. In Google Docs it is the currency of the country and in my own excel sheet I will keep it in euros so there will be differences between the two.

Two of the sales criteria are still loose and pretty open... that for ABF/Primark and IBM. I have still entered a towards price which in the case of Primark is based on the P/E value that the large retail chains are being traded at (Inditex & H&M)... disturbing that Primark is even above that... and for IBM that I hope to sell when Warren Buffett does but still I gave the price based on that Berkshire Hathaway bought them back in 2011 and Warren wants at least 14% interest on his investments and from that I then calculated a pretty open price of what Warren at least would have liked to have now three years later, which he still have not received at all... after my anger decrease of the share price of Asian Bamboo I again calmed down a little and put in that if they do not go insolvent then at least one should be able to get 80% of the book value out.... and for the banks I put in a P/B of around 1.8 which is what healthy banks are being traded at today so once DB and CZB gets healthy then they should also trade around there.

If you consider me to have put in completely crazy prices then please let me know so that I can adjust them or at least think twice about the price that I have written.


Sunday 24 August 2014

K+S report Q2 2014

K+S, Q2, 2014, report, front page

When K+S arrived with their half year report last week the answer of the market was to give the cold shoulder and the price of the shares dropped with around -4% which is a lot and much more than what I would have expected for an already pushed down company.

Saturday 23 August 2014

Pershing Square: William Ackman Q2 2014

Logo, Pershing Square, William Ackman, Q2 2014

This quarter William relaxed a little and he was good at kicking out investments but did not bring any new investment back in.

For the previous report please click on Pershing Square: William Ackman Q1 2014.

William Ackman, Pershing Square, Q2, 2014, holdings, stocks

Conclusion: William kicked out three investments of which two were new investments last quarter which means it is not easy to keep up with him.

Friday 22 August 2014

All the companies on DAX with Google Docs

DAX, logo, 2014, all the companies

Now also all the companies on DAX have been brought into a Google Docs spread sheet with a live update of all the values.

I do not know if anyone of you noticed it but I have fiddled a little with the motivated P/E value that becomes too high with an extreme growth company and I wanted to still have an automatic formula that could be calculated in the spread sheet. I decided to mix in ROE as a criteria and I also added a 20% margin.

To go to the live updated spread sheet of the DAX companies then please click on Companies on DAX 2014.

There will also be a permanent link to the spread sheet that can be found on the Stocks of Interest page.

Here is a snapshot of the companies on 21.08.2014:

DAX, companies, contrarian, valuation, August, 2014

Conclusion: As we can see in the table several of the DAX companies are highly valued. In several cases this is due to poor earnings example: DB, Commerzbank etc. but in other cases it is simply due to too over valued share prices with for instance Beiersdorf and to a certain extent also Bayer. Only two companies end up green: Fresenius and Volkswagen.


Thursday 21 August 2014

Greenlight Capital: David Einhorn Q2 2014

Greenlight Capital, logo, David Einhorn

The SEC for Greenlight Capital shows us the American companies that David has bought and sold during Q2 2014. The activity as always has been high and this time he even jumped back into a company that he had stepped out of in Q1.

The new additions to his stock portfolio were:

Wednesday 20 August 2014

Stocks of Interest: August 2014

Stocks of Interest, August, 2014

It took some time but now I have finally managed to get the list up and running with the Google Docs / Drive and I have it open for everyone to see and follow. The update in the share price will be made every 20 minutes or so and I will (hopefully) once per month take a snapshot of the stocks and post that in the Stocks of Interest page. There you can also find the permanent link to the Google spread sheet. Unfortunately the list does not sort itself automatically with changing share price but I will try to do also that once per month.

As always some analysis of the companies can be old meaning that it is not based on the previous annual report. If you want the corrected information then please just poke me so that I can make the fresh analysis of the company and so that I can change the data in the spread sheet.

In the spread sheet there are also links going to the last analysis that was made of the companies so by simply clicking on those links you will find out a bit more about the company and you also get direct access to the link to their home page to be able to make your own investigation of it and to get a feeling for a potential moat of the company.

Here is the snapshot of the current list:

Stocks of Interest, August, 2014

Several companies have been kicked out from the Stocks of Interest list and I will over time build another spread sheet with those. For the moment they are simply out and I am sorry about this but they will soon be brought back on another list so that they can still be followed and the principle there is also that each analysed company that were kicked out should be brought to that new spread sheet.

I will also create a list with the 30 DAX companies that can be accessed also on the Stocks of Interest page but I will again make a post to inform when that has been done so that you can follow them with live updates of their figures based on the previous annual report.

I must of course also put in my own shares in a list with this live update and I am currently working also on this and that will then be accessed on the Stock Portfolio page but without the snapshots since I there use a different approach of publishing the development.

If you have any suggestions and ideas on what else I should implement or changes to what I have and will implement then please just let me know!


Tuesday 19 August 2014

Analysis of Posco

Posco, a Korean steel company

Company: Posco

ISIN US6934831099 | WKN 893094 (analysis is however based on KRW)

Business: A Korean steel company. Posco is divided into a couple of family members (as they call it): Steel (high quality steel for all kind of applications), E&C (an engineering & construction company in various steel containing projects such as skyscrapers ), Trade (global trading and investing), ICT (IT and engineering services), Energy (energy production with large focus on renewable sources), Material-Chemistry (refractory production for steel and glass industry) and finally Support (somehow asset management but they only had homepage in Korean)

Active: Main focus is Korea and Asia but they are present on each continent and in several countries on each continent.

P/E: 21.2

Monday 18 August 2014

Asian Bamboo report Q2 2014

Asian Bamboo, Q2, 2014, report, front page

The answer of the market was more or less -3% on the Q2 report from Asian Bamboo. Lately I have very frequently been unhappy with the reports and conducted similar activities to them as Mr. Creosote does to buckets. This time was no different.

Sunday 17 August 2014

Dalal Street: Mohnish Pabrai Q2 2014

Dalal Street, Mohnish Pabrai

Mr. Pabrai decided once again that it was high time to bring in another company into his portfolio and this time he decided to step into Korea and a very special steel company there...

The new investment was:

POSCO - A Korean steel producer that start up business in the 60´s. Today they are one of the few steel companies that are still making a profit. For more information please see analysis of Posco.

If you want to take a look at the previous summary then please see Dalal Street: Mohnish Pabrai Q1 2014.

Conclusion: Not only did he buy Berkshire last quarter but this quarter he also bought a holding that Berkshire have had and probably still do have. The reason for why I say "do have" is due to the issue that there is no requirement according to SEC to file international ownership and for that reason Berkshire does not show their international holdings. However every international holding above 1 billion USD is being reported in the Berkshire letters and 2013 POSCO was no longer included which was either due to the 1 billion limit or because it was sold... Either way Mr. Pabrai started a holding in it. He also decided to decrease his holding in Chesapeake Energy so according to him the fair value must have been reached in that holding.

Additional comment: I decided to make an analysis of Posco that will arrive shortly and there in their annual report from 2013 they mentioned every shareholder above 2% and Berkshire and Warren is not in there (they used to have around 5%). I therefore now draw the conclusion that Berkshire walked out on the investment or have significantly decreased it.

Saturday 16 August 2014

Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett Q2 2014

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Q2, 2014, SEC

This was in my opinion an active month for Berkshire Hathaway with plenty of changes in their stock portfolio with the addition of two new companies (one a spin-off though...), one company was kicked out and one is very close to be sold out. I guess that will be the case in the next quarter report.

The new companies were:

Friday 15 August 2014

E.On. report Q2 2014

E.On., report, Q2, 2014, front page

My largest energy producer and distributor arrived with their 2nd quarter report and the market accepted it with standing ovations and the share price jumped up around 4 to 5% on the day it was published. That was the markets answer and this is my answer...

Thursday 14 August 2014

Analysis of Uzin Utz

A German supplier of flooring systems

Company: Uzin Utz

ISIN DE0007551509 | WKN 755150   

Business: A German supplier of flooring systems. The Uzin Utz group contains several brands that are either producing floors or equipment for working with floors. The brands are: Uzin (floor covering and wood flooring), Wolff (Machinery and special tools for floor installations), Pallmann (products for surface treatment of wood flooring), Arturo (making synthetic resin flooring), codex (stone and ceramic flooring), RZ (cleaning products for floors) and finally Ufloors Systems (specialised in providing the clients with combined floor solutions from the in-house producers)

Active: Main activity is in Europe, some activity in the middle east and little activity in the US, China, Australia and Indonesia.

P/E: 12.9

Wednesday 13 August 2014

Cez report Q2 2014

Cez, Q2, 2014, report, front page

One of my latest investments as well as my latest dividend payer, Cez, arrived with their latest Q2 report fro 2014. The market accepted it well and the share price jumped up around 1.5%. In the report we found that?

Tuesday 12 August 2014

Analysis of WashTec

WashTec, a German producer of car wash units

Company: WashTec

ISIN DE0007507501 | WKN 750750

Business: A German producer of vehicle washing products. They have several car wash product lines such as Gantry Car Wash, Conveyor Tunnel, Commercial Vehicle Washing and Hobby Wash. Additionally they provide Water Recovery Systems as well as Washing Materials (anything from soap to the brushes)

Active: Product distribution in around 60 countries in Europe, North America and Asia.

P/E: 14.0

Monday 11 August 2014

Not able to keep up...

Time, essence, my watch

I have noticed that I am not able to keep up with the publications as I would have liked to and I must therefore reform and improve myself and this site.

I will try to start working with Google Docs when it comes to the Stocks of Interest to make sure that the list is continuously updated with the latest result. However the data on that list will still be based on my excel spread sheets which means that you need to remind me and poke me in the side when it is high time to re-analyse a company that is on that list and that you consider to start to be seriously interesting!

Since I still do not know how it works with Google Docs as well as how I can implement the finished document on my site this process can be anything from a couple of days to weeks. The final result will however be worth it so that I can get a quick overview of which company is the most interesting to invest in! Especially since I have realised that I very often like to invest in the latest interesting company that I found when maybe one of the old ones have actually become a more interesting investment.

I am still thinking about my investment strategy and how I currently seem to just build up company after company instead of selling some off to have a more dense portfolio. My current thoughts are that it seems to take a long time for turnarounds to kick in if you buy them early (too early?) and instead of investing more in them I seem to prefer to invest in other companies. I must also learn to start selling. Both when companies have reached their fair price and when the fundamentals change.


Sunday 10 August 2014

Münchener Rückversicherung report Q2 2014

MüRe, Q2, 2014, report, front page

MüRe dropped well over -2% on the release of their Q2 report and as always the reason was that they were behind the expectations of the analyst. Was the report that bad?

Saturday 9 August 2014

Dividend from Cez: August 2014

Cez, a Czech energy producer and provider

Another one of my energy companies were kind enough to pay out dividend to me. This time it comes from Cez which is located in the Czech Republic and they paid out 40 CZK per share which gives me 4,000 CZK in total for my 100 shares. The unpleasant news was the taxes that I had to pay... 35% (an entire 1,400 CZK)!

The conversion rate from CZK to EUR was 28.043 which means that I received 142.64 € in dividend, I paid 49.92 € in taxes and out as cash to my stock deposit I got only 92.72 €. If you want to find out more about Cez then please visit analysis of Cez 2014.

The Stock Dividends page has now been updated.


Friday 8 August 2014

Commerzbank report Q2 2014

Commerzbank, Q2, 2014, front page

The share price for Commerzbank increased by well over 2% on the quarter report. Usually I am astonished by the market response which to a large extent comes from my own stupid ignorance of the markets expectations which will always have an effect on the day to day share price movements. What was then in the report to cause such a run to Commerzbank?