Analysis of Avtovaz 2018

Company: Avtovaz 

ISIN US05453R1014 | WKN 576848

Business: A Russian automotive company. They are the biggest personal car producer in Russia with their own brand, Lada, as well as having production for, for instance, Renault and Nissan which are their largest shareholders. Today they have almost 20% of the Russian market and they hope to increase that as well as increasing export.

Active: In 46 countries with the biggest market being Russia.

P/E: -6.9

Here you can find the previous analysis of Avtovaz 2016... missed last year.

The P/E is bad with -6.9 due to losses and the P/B is equally bad with -1 which gives a clear no go from Graham. Earnings to sales, ROE and book to debt ratio due to losses as well as having negative equity.

In the last five years they have however shown an excellent yearly revenue growth rate of 5% which gives us a motivated P/E of 13 to 18. I am unable to make a statement since they are making losses.

They spend money on R&D which is good but what is crucial for Avtovaz moving forward is of course increased sales and cost control.

They, correctly so, pay out no dividends.

Conclusion: Graham says no and so do I. Is there a future for Avtovaz? I tend to think so but without any earnings it is very difficult to give them a reasonable valuation today. I will remain as a grumpy shareholder due to the loss of Bo Inge Anderson.

Avtovaz annual report 2017

For the report in full please go here and to read my previous summary please click on Avtovaz annual report 2016 and to find out more regarding Avtovaz then please visit Analysis of Avtovaz 2016. It appears as if I got so annoyed with the changes in Avtovaz that I did not make an analysis of the company during 2017.

In the income statement below we see that there was a significant increase in the revenue for Avtovaz in 2017. The costs unfortunately also increased and we ended up with yet another year of losses but much less than in 2016. Reading the sales for Q1 of 2018 then Avtovaz is doing very well. We are of course still dealing with a significant negative equity in Avtovaz which is also very clearly stated by the accounting company.

Conclusion: Avtovaz is doing better and by the look of things their new models (developed by Bo Inge Andersson) appears to have been highly successful that now the new french CEO can harvest. I will remain as a shareholder.

Avtovaz annual report 2016

For the report in full please go here and to read my previous summary please click on Avtovaz annual report 2015 and to find out more regarding Avtovaz then please visit Analysis of Avtovaz 2016.

No, new news under the sun for Avtovaz. Interestingly enough the share price peaked at 1.4 € not that long ago but since I no longer check in on my stocks every day or week for that matter I simply missed the good opportunity to sell my shares without a too significant loss. Oh, well, occasions seems to come and go fairly frequently.

They did actually manage to push up their sales compared to 2015 which is very good news. Due to that they still have to import all the parts to get them in a sufficiently high quality their costs are unfortunately very high for putting the cars together and they are pushing market share like crazy. It is a true disgrace that such a natural resource rich country as Russia are not able to offer proper steel for their automotive industry. Bottom line Avtovaz made a loss of 44 billion RUB which should be compared to almost -74 billion RUB last year. What still makes me over the top excited is the equity that is at -58 billion RUB.

Conclusion: Avtovaz still have not managed to sort things out but it is impressive that they managed to increase their sales even further last year, a year, that was filled of uncertainty and crashed oil prices which made Mother Russia take a serious beating which always makes people spend less. I do like that the cost of sales have not gone of any further. I will remain a grumpy shareholder.

Automotive report Q2 2016

Due to that I had missed the filing of VW Q1 report I of course include that in this report. To read the report in full please go here and to read the previous summary then please click on VW annual report 2015 and to find out more regarding VW then please visit analysis of VW 2016.

Conclusion: In Q1 VW did not do very well. The sales revenue were down by a couple of %-age according to them due to exchange rates. They did however deliver more cars. More people seems to be leasing their cars because their financial services showed a nice growth for the quarter. Not so good is the drop in earnings that were around -20%. Still the company made money. I like when my companies make money in each quarter.

In the Q2 report from VW there are some unpleasantness named special items that is in the size of almost -2.5 billion EUR. I do not like special items that decrease results.

Conclusion: They are still pretty flat compared to in 2015 and they keep claiming lowered  revenue due to exchange rates. Without the "special item" the earnings for VW would have been ok but with it, as it is now, we are down by over -35% in earnings which is a lot.

Here we have the report from our Russian friends in Avtovaz that decided last spring to kick out the Swedish CEO. Did they do any better I wonder? For the report in full please go here and to read my previous summary please click on Avtovaz report Q1 2016 and to find out more regarding Avtovaz then please visit Analysis of Avtovaz 2016. 

Conclusion: The sales are down a little for the running half year but they have still not managed to get costs under their control which is bad news. They have a wonderful impairment cost that made me laugh. The new CEO seems to like financial engineering. This huge impairment cost comes from a discounted cash flow model concerning the situation in Russia today and what that might look like in the future and if they will not reach their targets in 2019. So... eh... yeah... let us add that as an impairment cost in the size of 20% of our current revenue because that sounds about correct.

Avtovaz report Q1 2016

The destroyer of my heart and soul Avtovaz arrived with their awful first quarter report. I still hesitate over what to do with this company. Hard decision and for this reason it remains as part of my portfolio.

Avtovaz: incompetence sitting at the steering wheel

No, I am not talking about the CEO Bo Inge Andersson because he has a proven track record but instead I would like to point at the complications of having majority shareholders that are controlled by incompetent individuals.

A lot of bad things can probably be said about Russia, Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev. One thing is however very clear. Russia is a great nation with extreme quantities of natural resources. No one has ever managed to fully conquer Russia and yet countries have tried. Mr. Putin and Mr. Medvedev... well... one do not have to like their politics or how they gained and remained in power but one thing is very, very clear. They are extremely intelligent people.

Analysis of Avtovaz 2016

Company: Avtovaz 

ISIN US05453R1014 | WKN 576848

Business: A Russian automotive company. They are the biggest personal car producer in Russia with their own brand, Lada, as well as having production for, for instance, Renault and Nissan which are their largest shareholders. Today they have almost 20% of the Russian market and they hope to increase that as well as increasing export.

Active: In 46 countries with the biggest market being Russia.

P/E: -0.3

Avtovaz annual report 2015

My Russian car company Avtovaz have arrived with their full year report and the reading was not pretty... not pretty at all.

Avtovaz report Q3 2015

Wooops! I am amazed that the share price have remained as high as it have since the release of the report. This was seriously bad news! I have also now found a better source for the reports that I will link to. It is all in Russian but at least Google translator works ok and the reports are offered in English.

Avtovaz report Q2 2015

My Russian car producer Avtovaz arrived with their... well... one page press release to explain what the first half year has looked like. There is a proper filing also but it is in Russian and with this company I do not care very much what happens from quarter to quarter. The share price have generally been dropping which is to a large extent due to a much weaker RUB.

Analysis of Avtovaz

Company: Avtovaz

ISIN US05453R1014 | WKN 576848  

Business: A Russian automotive company. They are the biggest personal car producer in Russia with their own brand, Lada, as well as having production for, for instance, Renault and Nissan.

Active: In 46 countries with the biggest market being Russia.

P/E: -1.0

Stock bought June 2015: Avtovaz

As I wrote in the comment to Garry in the article analysis of Picanol Group back in December 2013 the only CEO that I had discovered and wanted to keep an eye on was Bo Inge Andersson and there I write that if he ever goes to a publicly traded company then guess what? I must buy it!

Avtovaz is my second investment that is purely management based and I care very little of what the company have looked like in the past and what they look like right now because I trust these guys enough to be able to sort out any obstacle that are thrown at them.