Monday 30 November 2015

Analysis of Deere 2015

Deere, an American outdoor machinery producer

Company: Deere

ISIN US2441991054 | WKN 850866

Business: An American outdoor machine producer. They have eight different product categories: Residential (lawn mowers), Agriculture (tractors etc.), Construction (Trucks and Loaders), Landscaping & Grounds Care (commercial lawn mowers), Golf & Sports (fairway mowers etc.), Forestry (harvesters and dozers), Engines & Drivetrain (diesel engines and generators), Specialized (military and rental). Their largest is however Agriculture and most people in countries conducting modern agriculture will have have seen the beautiful Deere logo.

Active: 30 countries world wide. Focus on US, Canada, Europe, Brazil, Russia, India and China. I was surprised to see that they did not mentioned Africa but maybe the infrastructure need to improve much more before Deere can establish themselves stronger there.

P /E: 13.9

Sunday 29 November 2015

Deere annual report 2015

Deere, annual, 2015, front page

Since I bought Deere not that long ago as well as them having a broken year my first report summary therefore are based on their annual report for 2015. Upon the release of this report the share price increased with 4 to 5% which as always is based on the expectation of the analysts versus the real outcome. This time Deere apparently did better but the reading was not pleasant and the future expectations by the managers were not showing us the road to riches.

Saturday 28 November 2015

Enel report Q3 2015

Enel, Q3, 2015, report, front page

My greenish energy producer Enel arrived with their report. Enel had a bit of a share price drop during spring-summer but are now up above 4 € again. I was thinking about increasing the position when they were down around 3.7 € (because my initial investment was so small) but I never got around to it and it seems as if I never have the money to do so. It seems to be a never ending story with my companies and there is always one of them dropping like a stone and I then feel forced to buy that one instead so I never get to water the flowers.

Friday 27 November 2015

Cez report Q3 2015

Cez, Q3, 2015, report, front page

My eastern European electricity investment Cez arrived with their Q3 report. The share price has during the last six months not been going very well but it was not as a response directly to this report but I think the investment is down by around -20% right now (like almost all my electricity investments are). I have read several articles about the trouble Vattenfall is in and that they are forced to sell their coal plants and mines in Germany. Cez has given Vattenfall an offer on all of that including ten hydro plants. I hope that Vattenfall will accept the deal.

Wednesday 25 November 2015

When will shareholder boards create company rules?

Future, Managers, Minions

Based on a comment from Matthias found here in combination with discussions at work concerning that democracies very rarely "learn" since new people come in power all the time this reflection started to form in my mind.

Looking back in time religion had, upon the time of creation, an important function of bringing "laws" and structures to people. It also brought them hope, comfort and unification but that is unimportant for this reflection.

Tuesday 24 November 2015

Stock bought November 2015: RWE

RWE, a German electricity provider

Actually my plan was to buy a completely different company in November. I wanted to get that company at a very nice price and I therefore placed an order at a price that obviously was far too low and I have still not managed to buy the company and yet that money is blocked for doing anything else unless I stop the order and pay 4.5 € for doing so. This has been driving me up the walls. Each day I have been login into my broker account to see if the darn order has been taken or not and of course it have still not happened.

Happily I had a little bit more money on the account that I could use so I decided to use that now upon yet another massive share price drop for RWE. The CEO said (or at least it was interpreted like that by the journalist) that RWE has no money for making investments and they need to make investments to grow. This then brought up the fear of that RWE might be forced to issue more shares so that they can grow. If a company decided to issue more shares so that they get money to grow then I have no issue with this. I do not like when a company issues more shares because A) they are not generating enough money on their own to pay for operational costs or B) because otherwise they will go bankrupt because loans need to be paid back. There are probably a C and a D also but I can not think of them right now.

Anyway... due to this the share price dropped again by -5 to -6% and then I decide to pick up more shares in RWE.

I therefore bought 95 fresh shares in RWE at a price of 10.823 € or 1,036.08 € including fees in total. I now hold 330 shares in RWE with a total investment of 4,585 € or 13.89 € per share including fees.

To find out more about RWE please take a look at analysis of RWE 2015.

If you want to see my current Stock Portfolio then click on the link but the portfolio will not be fully updated until the end of the month.

Sunday 22 November 2015

Analysis of Kroger

Kroger, an American grocery conglomerate

Company: Kroger

ISIN US5010441013 | WKN 851544

Business: An American grocery conglomerate. They are standing on several pillars: Supermarkets (2625 of them), Convenience stores (to the quantity of 782), Fine Jewellery Stores (326 of them), Supermarket Fuel Centers (1330 so almost every second Supermarket have a fuel center). Additionally they have 37 Food Processing Plants and 36 Distribution Centers. When the customer arrived they definitely try to sell everything they can to them!

Active: USA in 34 states.

P/E: 21.5

Friday 20 November 2015

Greenlight Capital: David Einhorn Q3 2015

Greenlight Capital, hedge fund run by David Einhorn

David Einhorn once again made massive movements in his portfolio. Four new companies were included and he kicked out seven!

For the previous report please visit Greenlight Capital: David Einhorn Q2 2015.

The fresh additions were:

CNX Coal - An American coal mining company... which I find funny since on the other hand he is getting more and more involved in Solar...

Garmin - A Swiss navigation products company please see analysis of Garmin.

Terraform - A renewable energy company acquired from SunEdison.

Vivint Solar - A solar panel company.

Thursday 19 November 2015

Pershing Square: William Ackman Q3 2015

Pershing Square, a hedge fund run by William Ackman

The excitement from William got slightly more intensified since he actually stepped into a new company last quarter according to SEC. Please keep in mind that only US holdings must be filed.

For the previous report please visit Pershing Square: William Ackman Q2 2015.

New holdings:

Mondelez - An American food and snack producer.

Conclusion: Since Mr. Ackman very rarely are silent when he step into companies it was already known since before that Mondelez was the new thorn in his side... or maybe other way round... I took a look at Mondelez. They have excellent brands. Many that I myself love to eat but it also seems to be run by fools having today large intangible assets and goodwill in their balance sheet. So maybe Ackman will manage to change something. On the other hand he has not been very successful as of late.

Source: SEC

Wednesday 18 November 2015

Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett Q3 2015

Berkshire Hathaway, conglomerate run by Warren Buffett

My feeling this time turned out to be correct and a company "gone" from the list once again reappeared but as a much larger holding. There were some things in this report that disturbed me and I guess many of you will feel the same.

Tuesday 17 November 2015

Talanx report Q3 2015

Talanx, Q3, 2015, report, front page

My currently only insurance company, Talanx, arrived with their Q3 report. The market response was this time not so good and in general the share price has been dropping during the quarter. I was not very happy with the last report and the same goes for this one.

Monday 16 November 2015

RWE report Q3 2015

RWE, Q3, 2015, front page

The report was very poorly accepted by the market since the share price dropped with around -10% on the day of the release. In a way it is interesting because they mention that they expect the year to become as they forecast which should in my world mean that nothing much should happen upon the release.

Sunday 15 November 2015

Aquamarine Capital: Guy Spier Q3 2015

Aquamarine Capital, Guy Spier

For whatever reason Aquamarine are making their publications slightly off or maybe it is better to say that they directly make the publications and the other guys are holding on to it until the very last minute.

For the previous report please click on Aquamarine Capital: Guy Spier Q2 2015.

Aquamarine Capital, Guy Spier, Q3, 2015

Conclusion: Also Guy Spier have had very little activity in the USA during the last quarter. Only one thing happened and that was that he kicked out Cresud SA Comercial which is an Argentinian company but it is traded on Nasdaq and for that reason just like Posco they are reported in the SEC filing.

Source; SEC

Dalal Street: Mohnish Pabrai Q3 2015

Dalal Street run by Mohnish Pabrai

Ugh, the activity of Mr. Pabrai was in Dalal Street extremely low during the third quarter as you will see below.

For the previous summary please visit Dalal Street: Mohnish Pabrai Q2 2015.

Mohnish Pabrai, Dalal Street, Q3, 2015

Conclusion: Well... the amount of shares that were shifted in Fiat as well as in GM were so small that I would guess it was made out of pure boredom. So to say it more frankly nothing happened during the third quarter in terms of US investments.

source: SEC

Saturday 14 November 2015

K+S report Q3 2015

K+S, Q3, 2015, front page

Before this report arrived I was thinking to myself, and this will be added to the mistakes for 2015, how stupid was I when I did not sell the shares when they were up at 38 €? If I as a small investor do not benefit from being able to move quickly then I am shooting myself in the foot and quick movements such as what happened back then we should use. I also start to develop an itch or maybe even an allergy towards the word "adjusted"... The market response was as it should be, down and out with the trash.

Friday 13 November 2015

E.On report Q3 2015

E.On, Q3, 2015, front page

The German electricity companies are not having an easy time as it is and then they are often deciding themselves to add some more salt to those wounds. By this I mean that they are taking massive impairment costs. E.On is in my opinion strategically doing that for the split that will happen next year but in many cases those values should probably have already been written off. My problem with all this has to do with the P/B line of the contrarian strategy that I followed when I for instance bought E.On. A P/B of 0.5 looks good but with too many impairment costs that P/B very quickly end up at a level that well... make the investment look a lot less interesting to be honest. The huge impairment costs for E.On had already been announced so the market response was not as bad as it otherwise would and should have been.

Thursday 12 November 2015

Avtovaz report Q3 2015

Avtovaz, Q3, 2015, front page

Wooops! I am amazed that the share price have remained as high as it have since the release of the report. This was seriously bad news! I have also now found a better source for the reports that I will link to. It is all in Russian but at least Google translator works ok and the reports are offered in English.

Wednesday 11 November 2015

Adidas report Q3 2015

Adidas, Q3, 2015, front page

The nine months report from Adidas is out and about. The share price have steadily moved upwards and are now up at a level that makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. In the 10 months I have owned them the share price have increased by 50%. This report was well accepted and the share price increased yet again upon the publication.

Tuesday 10 November 2015

Analysis of ABF 2015

Associated British Foods, an UK grocery, sugar and retail conglomerate

Company: ABF

ISIN GB0006731235 | WKN 920876 

Business: A British conglomerate with agriculture, agricultural products as well as retail. Currently they have five business segments: Sugar, Agriculture, Retail, Grocery and Ingredients. To find out more about their grocery brands then please click here.

Active: Europe, Africa, USA and Australia. Heaviest in the UK and Ireland.

P/E: 52.0 (yuk!)

Monday 9 November 2015

ABF annual report 2015

ABF, annual, 2015, release, front page

Associated British Foods with one of my favourite retail chains Primark arrived with their release concerning the full year 2015. Later on a nice report will be made but I care about the figures and not the pictures so I am happy enough with this. The market reaction was not filled with warmth and there was a couple of %-age points drop but much less than what I would have thought to be honest when I read the report.

Sunday 8 November 2015

Coba report Q3 2015

Coba, Q3, 2015, report, front page

Commerzbank joined the club of reporting the third quarter for 2015. The report was well accepted by the market and that the chairman of the board will not extend his contract (he got around one more year of service) was also not something that caused a stir. In one years time they should be able to find a good replacement. I discussed with a colleague that said that he had done a good job... well... I can agree that he has been helpful in getting Commerzbank back on their feet again and he remained loyal and stayed with the bank during the hard times but on the other hand... he was sitting in the board (not is power though) already when the decision was made to take over the Dresdner Bank that has been the biggest cause for almost all the trouble so it is clearly a grey zone situation.

Saturday 7 November 2015

Fugro report Q3 2015

Fugro, Q3, 2015, report, front page

Fugro my only Dutch company arrived with their Q3 report and as each report has been since I stepped in as a shareholder it has been about cuts, cuts and cuts. What has worried me since the very first report is my concern regarding them cutting away too much meat. by this I mean that they lay off employees take impairment costs and sell off vessels at a far lower value than what they should have... and for what? How much will they be forced to pay to get it all back in two years time from now?

Friday 6 November 2015

DB report Q3 2015

DB, Q3, 2015, report, front page

When whatever hits the fan it spreads. It took DB six years and the kicking of three CEOs before things started to go in a direction that I find more acceptable. The new CEO is pulling all the joker cards he has available by taking massive impairment costs (in the size of 5.8 billion €) as well as deciding to cut dividends for probably the next two years. The market was not pleased and of course neither am I  but if this will lead to a turn around then in the end I will be pleased.

Thursday 5 November 2015

Fenix Outdoor what to think?

Fenix Outdoor, a Swiss outdoor wear company

Fenix Outdoor used to be a Swedish company that now have their headquarters in Switzerland. Since I use one of their brands more or less on a daily basis and are extremely happy with their quality I have kept an eye on them from time to time.

Back in 2013 I made an analysis of them (analysis of Fenix Outdoor) and by the look of things that would have been an excellent moment to buy the company. Back then a P/E of 20 scared me which it still does today but not as much. Looking at Fenix Outdoor as an example the P/E is still around 20 but the share price have increased by around 28% during these two years which gives a more than fully acceptable yearly return. The share price was even up sniffing on 400 SEK which would have been a 50% increase if one would have acted upon it that is.