Thursday 3 December 2015

Stocks of Interest: December 2015

Stocks of Interest

Since the previous month had been so busy I was a bit more relaxed during November. The only addition became RWE which was to a certain extent due to that my order, of another company, did not go through. I decided to build up my 1k buffer on the broker account again and on top of things I had to shuffle over the final part of the debt to my brother to Sweden so the month was pretty strained. Each month I have shuffled over money and here in November I had to push over the final part to be able to pay that off. It will not be 100% correctly settled according to what was agreed but I wanted the bulk to be finished and with the payment that will be made now in December that bulk is gone. This should release some cash for for buying even more stocks but I have decided to monthly start building up a private cash buffer that I can use if I get into to much trouble of finding a new job. I will not be paid any unemployment money here in Germany so for this reason I have been previously foolish by not building up such a pile of cash. I will build up around six months of expenses which in combination with my current buffer would give me around eight months to find a new job without having any other incomes. If it in the end will not be needed then well... you all know where that cash pile will go!

Oh, I also start to be more and more embarrassed regarding the stocks of interest list since those analysis from 2014 are really old and I need to remake all of them when I find some more time in my life. Happily all of you are clever enough to make your own analysis as well as adding a margin of safety for any Russian stocks which in many cases will be so high that they simply become a no go.

For the previous report please click on Stocks of Interest: November 2015.

Stocks, Interest, December, 2015

The top ten are as follows: Balaton, Pharmstandard, Sollers, ARLP, TransContainer, Fossil, Tag Immobilien, Casino, Qualcomm and Splendid Medien. I am fairly surprised to see that Qualcomm is on this list right now and for that reason I took a quick look at them. They have made massive share buybacks... are dropping in revenue and forecast also drop during 2016. They do however spend 5 billion USD on research AND they are still making a profit. Could be a good contrarian moment to buy them who knows... I must admit that when I look at them I get a similar feeling to what Intel looked like back in 2013 when I bought them and in that case it turned out very well but that means when looking at Qualcomm. Oh, and Südzucker was kicked out of the list since they had reached a fair share price valuation.

DAX, December, 2015

Well... the story has not changed that much. The cars are cheap. Everyone that bought VW below 100 € are now up over 30% on that investment. Utilities are cheap, banks are cheap and Linde have continued to drop down which to me starts to make sense. It was absurd that Linde was being traded at a P/E above 30 during last spring and now it starts to come down to more normal levels. Do not understand me wrong. It is a wonderful company but even wonderful companies got an acceptable price tag on them and over 190 € as when the analysis were made made no sense.

My, Stocks, Portfolio, December, 2015

Starts to be less cheap companies in my portfolio. Adidas and ABF have both gone red now and a couple of greens have turned yellow. The major cheap ones are cars, banks and utilities.

Conclusion: I got 3k in cash and from that I want to keep 1k as buffer. So I can either make one completely new investment or push in 2x1k € into some of my current holdings. I think I will increase my current holdings. I must say that I like what Mr. Cryan is saying and if he acts the way he talks then he is my man!

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