Monday 8 February 2016

Analysed requests from 2013

request, analysis, 2013

I decided to take a look at the requests that I have received over the years and how the development, in terms of share price, have been of those companies. First out will be the requests that I received during 2013 on the Analysis Requests page as it can be seen above. I have received many more requests over email and on twitter but I will stick to that what posted on that page.

This reflection is not only to take a look at the suggestions arriving but, maybe more importantly, I also look at and judge the buy or not buy comment based on Grahams formula as well as my own personal feeling concerning the specific company.

The colour coding is based on that the share price have moved plus or minus 20% and if Graham and I answered yes or no to buying it. So 20% plus and we answered Yes then the colour is green and inverse if it is minus 20% and we answered Yes then the colour will be red. I am sure you get it. One can discuss why I picked 20% but my reasoning there is simply that minus 20% is more than a classical correction of the stock market which means that the company has for whatever reason been punished more.

I should also be mentioned that I have not considered any issuing of shares or reverse split etc because I simply do not know if those things have happened so there can be serious er

One can start off by saying that Graham have six green ones and nine red ones (40% good) while I got five green ones and seven red ones (42% good). Both of us failed to pick the the rocket Aperam and generally I would even say that Graham was better than me. Some companies scared me off due to their small size which Grahams formula do not care at all about. I managed to avoid the two worst companies Aker and ArcelorMittal while Graham ended up picking one of them. 

If Graham would have invested 1000 € into each of his holdings then today he would be up by 5.3%, I would have been up by 6.1% and by buying all of them we would have been up by 12.1%. It should be noted here that we are talking about a holding period of around three years so the result, for everyone, is actually awful in comparison to index.

I hope that all of you that arrived with the suggestions have made wiser decisions than what both Graham and I would have done. On the list above I own K+S as well as Adidas and soon in spring I will be the owner also of Picanol due to the merger of Tessenderlo and Picanol.

Aperam was completely out of my radar and I would never have ended up buying it. The bicycle company Accell was intriguing me because their business concept made/makes totally sense but in the end I walked away from it.

Conclusion: Do not listen neither to Graham nor to me and please buy index funds.

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